It was nearing along toward Christmas time.　This year was a tough year for allalmost Japanese people.　There is a growing stastistics, compiled from authenticsources, suggesting that the credit crunch from private banks is rapidly growing dayby day, and it is heavily blasting small and medium size businessman, crippling themfor life.　We are forced to play to God for a brighter future due to incapability ofour government, as it is said that New Year's is the day to state our hopes for theYear.
　In a departue from past meetings, a sharp dispute marred the Kuala Lumpursummit of the Asia−Pacific Economie Cooperation forum.　Past summits turnedattention away from the basic political issues and sharp conflicts of intersts thattroubled participating nations.　And they issued vague and noncommittal statements, coordinating differences on minor issues.　Since last year, Malasian Prime MinisterMohamed has blamed market speculation by Hedge funds for the Asian countries'fundamental economic problems and policy mistake.　In addition, Vice PresidentAlbert Gore criticized the arrest and trial of former Deputy Prime Minister Anwa,and he said economic reforms must go hand in hand with political reforms.　As aresult, U.S.−Malaysian tension increased from Gore's remarks, and there were somemembers who strongly resented the self−centered diplomatic and economic policiesof the U.S. At the same time APEC felt that they could check U.S. influence throughtheir support of Mahatir.　Moreover the U.S., the would's only military superpower,is plagued by serious political problems, and those problems force Washington topursue self−centered policies.　But the U.S. leadership is declining now, and thereis a growing approved view that the world is becoming multipolar.　The U.S. styleof capitalism, which means free market economy, is unacceptable as a model for the21st century, It's kind of Capitalism is usually interpreted to be synonymous withthe freedom to do anything in pursuit of profit.　But freedom originally meansliberation from control and voluntary discipline.　Complete economic freedom givesrise to economic bubbles over and over again.　It is a fallacy that quantitativeeconomicexpansion will continue forever.　Its idea reminds me of the report. "TheLimits to Growth: On the Predicament of Mankind".　Mulling the future of mankindand the world, the report said the current world is necessarily bound by limitsof time and spase, and therefore we must be in cooperation with each order in orderto protect our society against the collapse of politics, economy and culture.　I thinkworld politicians, especially Americans, are lacking in the philosophy embodied inthe report.　With the end of the Cold War, the international community is in a newpolitical situation.　I cannot help but think that economic development in this countryhas been supported by what may be called " Corporate Capitalism " led bygovernment and bureaucrats.　And this idea are on the brink of collapse.　Moreoverthe danger is not only to Japan, but the risks also extend to Japan's neighboringeconomics partners in Asia and the world.　The fear that the low Nikkei index anda weaking yen are dragging down stock prices around the globe sounds a bitfar−fetched. But there is no denying that the economic crisis in East Asia, whichstarted with a devaluation of the Thai baht in July 1997, is casting shadows overthe U.S. and European economies.　Western concerns about the East Asian economicsare very real.　For one thing, currency devaluations by East Asian nations decreasetheir imports from and increase their exports to America and Europe, and thus slowdown growth rate in their regions.　In addition,　Western companies that investeddirectly and indirectly in the " Miracle of East Asia " are bound to suffer ecormouslosses.　Many economists say that the Japanese government must immediately startmending the battered banking system and take steps to spur domestic demands soJapan will not be epicenter of a global financial earthquake.　However this is easiersaid than done.　The central bank's ability to nudge the yen's value higher throughcurrency market intervention and the government's power to shore up stock pricesthrough the injection of public funds have both diminished.　The East Asian currencycrisis stems from a deep−rooted problem−the excess manufacturing capacity of itsindustrial producers is far beyond that of cosumption, and inventories which are pilledup cause economical stagnation as a result.　And East Asian nations are driven intoa "zero−sum " situation.　In other words, the " plus−sum " situation thatprevailed from the latter half of the 1980s to the early 1990s−a boom in which allnations were able to achieve high growth through expansion of reports came to agrinding halt.
　" Blessed sre the users of adversity ", Shakespeare once wrote.　If this is so, thenthere is a hope that Japan's economic adversity during the 1990s could well proveto be a blessing in disguise−if it inspires concerted efforts to pressure fundamentalreforms of the Japanese economy.　Such reforms would not only ensure recoveryfrom the present crisis but put Japan on the path to sustainable economic health.In some words, the great challange for Japan, as we near the end of the 20thcentury, is to transform this economic danger into opportunity, because the prolongedtroubles in the Japanese economy cause many of Japan's leaders to re−examine thesoundness of their nation's economic policies and business practices.　There is surelygreat admiration for Japan's ecormous strengths, diligence, the productivity of itsworkforce, the advanced status of much of its technology and manufacturingpowers, the Japanese people's excellence of so many products from cars to electronics.and much else.　Japan is an enormously resilient natin, and I am confident that itwill get back on its feet again.
　Looking at the world from a personal perspective, three major trends seem tobe taking hold : globalization of the world economy, homogenization of democracyin the political process, and a movement toward collective military security.　Whilethat appears to be the accepted wisdom, a deeper undercurrent is churning aroundthe world, carrying with it the portent of a new order in the global community.The world will no longer return to the pre−World War �U mode, a time when nationalstrengh was equated with military power.　Those were the so−called " territorygame " days.　Under the territory game paradigm, the worth of nation is measurredby the size of its territory and the extent of its natural resources.　It is expansionistphilosophy that gave rise to the hegemonic struggle of imperalism and plunged theworld into one war after another from the late 19th century into the 20th century.However the territory game paradigm gave way to the wealth game philosophy afterWorld War �U and now that the Cold War is over, the international community isfacing a different reality.　In a Word, nations want a unique indentity of their own,something they can identity as the " one and only " on the world stage.　The pathtoward a " one and only " identity in a borderless world cannot be built throughthe economy−driven wealth game paradigm.　The sense of being unique can onlycome through such things as religion, culture and something that belongs exclusivelyto a particular nation.　What we are witnessing, therefore, is the emergence of an " identity game " paradigm in the post−Cold War world.　Countries without clear−cut identies will be reduced to " geographic spaces " in a world of globalizedeconomy, homegenized democracies and collective military sequrity.
　So what will be Japan's own identity?　This is the most important issue for usas we enter the 21st century. We have democracy.　And we have economic power.But to be " one and only " in the world, we must develop a robust identity of ourown. It might be able to be done by absorbing the lessons of history and investigatingthe current world.　And its path is filled with pain and distress. But there is no wayfor us but to create our own " one and only " identity.